Breakfast in the Mountains



This is another failed attempt to write the book

Please forgive any inconvenience caused.

The way forward has proved to be the creation of a course in the subject.

The scripts for that are far superior

Please go to this link for that.













Re-starting Economics
With New Architecture
By Edward C D Ingram

To see the latest please click this link
General overall account of content of book
The content is as the title suggests. The economic architecture is the way we do things, the rules we make, the shape of the taxes, and so forth. The author argues that the current architecture distorts almost every price related to finance and investment. And that prices then do what prices are supposed to do – they try to create a balance – the wrong balance. The problems which that causes in such a complex system never end. The book challenges the idea that economies are by nature, unstable and need regular shepherding / interventions.

Expected sales
Because it will affect everyone and make them able to plan their financial lives with confidence it may catch the popular imagination. It is written in simple English and it has been said that people love inventors that change things. The ideas in the book will change a great deal for everyone at a VERY personal level.

And it is likely to be a popular book because the ideas are not only important and practical in themselves, but when implemented it will put an end to the way that a few people manage to acquire significant wealth at the expense of the majority as they exploit the economy’s weaknesses.

To get an author-signed copy (collector's item)  at launch or simply to be notified when the book is first published,  please send an email with the word "Book" and your price limit (in any currency) to this address:




OUTLINE SUBMITTED TO A PUBLISHER

As well as most of the above notes, the following outline has been sent to a publisher by the author for consideration:


·         Title
·         Restarting Economics – with New Architecture
·         Reasons for writing,
·     Very few people have the opportunity to write a book that will have a significant influence.
·     Dozens of the most practical people have urged me to publish for the past ten years, It has been a monumental task to make it logical and readable and credible from the first pages and to keep the interest of readers all the way through; and to cover all of the aspects that arise. But now it is done.
·   Almost everyone seems to want to read it when published. People love inventors that change the way things are done, especially when it will significantly change their own lives. 
I can confirm what Steven Hawking says – some discoveries are better than sex and the feeling lasts for years. I got that feeling when I did the mathematics of risk management for the first time. I knew I had seen something that no one had ever seen before and the implications were clearly going to lead to further discoveries - which they did.
·         Intended completion date
·         The scripts have been read and re-read so many times by so many helpers that it may be possible to publish by Xmas. I have polished my writing skills as a columnist for South Africa’s leading financial magazine online, www.fin24.com. The editors said my scripts were easy to use – few changes were needed. They fully support the book and will do so in every way possible when it is published.
·          List of chapters and indication of content of each chapter
·         If the style of any part of the compendium is not as academic as you would like, it can be changed. It contains informal parts as well as formal and highly academic parts.
·       The material is currently written as a compendium of five booklets, to be sold in one wrapper, mostly because booklet 02, entitled Restarting Economics – sub-title ‘‘Breakfast in the Mountains’ will have a very wide readership among the public, yet academics and policy makers need a whole lot more detail that is given in footnotes and in the rest of the compendium. It can be re-written as a single book.
·     To a significant extent, in that booklet 02, I have adopted the format used by Donald L Vogel in his Cambridge University Press book entitled ‘Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes’ and for the same reason. I had not read his book when I adopted that format: easily read words backed by footnotes that are extensive.
·         The informal style used in booklet 02 is a good way to introduce the concepts to economists and the financial services industry and to our policy-makers. It keeps the flow moving whilst retaining the reader’s interest. The first economist to read an early draft wrote one word to describe it: “Superb”. The next one wrote “It reads like a novel.” As someone from the research department of Deutsche Bank wrote to me – I am explaining complex things in ways that make them easy to understand,
·     BOOK REVIEWS:
       Professor Evelyn Chiloane-Tsoka from the University of South Africa, says that “These        ideas will become prescribed reading at universities” – I am allowed to quote her.

·   Many other professors, bankers, economists, and actuaries around the rest of the world have constantly assisted and/or urged Mr. Ingram to publish this series of booklets as soon as possible.
      
       A very senior member of a major Asian Central Bank has promised to give the book a positive review.

    The first economist to read a draft of booklet 02 (see below) described it in one word, "Superb". The second economist wrote, "It reads like a Novel."

The first publisher to read it said that “The reader is compelled to keep turning the pages.” 
   
    Alan Gray, Editor-in-Chief, NewsBlaze, writes, “If most of the recommendations in this book are accepted and put into practice, it will move economics itself onto a more scientific footing.”  


FIVE BOOKLETS – OR FIVE PARTS
·    01 ‘Restarting Economics – with New Architecture.’ This is the preface and so forth, acknowledgements and general framework. About 30 – 40 pages.
·         02 ‘Restating Economics – Breakfast in the Mountains’ because, as it says, it is a simple English explanation given to non-financial people during breakfast in the mountains, of how economies work, fail to work, and what needs to be done about that. About 80 pages and only five illustrations. More can be added.
·         O3 ‘Restarting Economics – A Slideshow.’ This is a slideshow with 36 slides. I presented it to a reader on Skype and what we said to each other forms the basic text that goes with the slideshow. He is an academic with a great interest in economics, so he asked intelligent questions. He has mentored me through some of the other scripts. It is highly academic and as such it is an alternative first chapter for academics. This is pointed out in booklet 01.
·         04 ‘Restarting Economics - A Taste of the Maths’ – This is an introduction to the mathematics of risk management for lenders. I have added an autobiographical foreword / chapter that serves as an overview of the mathematics as well as many features of the overall compendium. This grips the reader. Readers say it makes exciting reading. At the appropriate stage I mention Steven Hawking’s words about making discoveries.  This foreword / chapter introduces and over-views the mathematics in some important ways that explain what can and cannot be concluded. My description of the mathematics got me pole position in the GlobalRisk Community Website’s almanac of best contributions in 2012. /13 – both years.
·     05 ‘Restarting Economics - Any Questions?’ This is a selection of discussions that I have been involved with. Many took place on LinkedIn and elsewhere – even in private. All kinds of wild ideas are put to me as well as some that appear to make a lot of sense and which need answers.
·         Brief credentials of author
·    I have been extremely successful since I changed to financial services at the end of the 1960s at around the age of 30. I had previously studied Control Systems Engineering and was an investigator of complex systems at work – a Senior Quality Control Engineer, mostly self-taught because the skills were in their infancy at the time. I performed well according to testimony. My methods are now standard practice.
·         A senior person at the UK Treasury once told me in a telephone conversation that I was one of only two people to correctly predict the onset of the 1980s inflation. I have no recollection of his name. I was probably about the only person to correctly indicate the possibility of a slowdown after the oil price fell below $11 per barrel. – I had a number of successes like that because I was looking at the economic architecture and its limitations and its behaviour, not lots of correlations that only work in certain conditions. Therefore, unlike many economists, I was not surprised when stagflation happened. According to many observers I proved that markets are not efficient because I regularly out-performed almost everyone else. But Dr. Fama (now Professor Fama) never said that they were efficient over the medium term. Or if he did, his mathematics did not. I placed bets on news trends and market liquidity, not daily news. I called many a market turning point days before the chartists said it had happened. Some of this is recorded in published documents and newspapers.
·         For more, see my LinkedIn profile and my publications – link below.
·         Level of presentation
·    I may need sympathetic help with this. The more mathematical booklets in the compendiums are definitely academic in presentation and content. The 02 booklet is revolutionary in academic terms and the findings are well supported both within the notes and outside the booklet itself. I draw on many ‘giants’ of economic theory pointing out where some are wrong in ways that are thoroughly convincing, and agreeing that others are right.
·         The readership and market for the book
·        Academics certainly. As the professor says, the ideas will become prescribed reading at universities worldwide. But to become a text book like that we may have to write another book in a different style. On the other hand the ‘Chicago Plan’ (100% Reserve Ratios for banking) of the 1930s was written in an informal style as were some others that changed people’s thinking. Concept books can do that. Booklet 02 is a concept book. The rest of the booklets provide the science. The IMF has written a working paper on the Chicago Plan. In it they said that it was alright to write in that informal style. So if the IMF says that then maybe my book is also OK. I said that with the relevant citation in one of my earlier drafts. It can be included in the overview of the booklet if that helps to get acceptance of the informal style.
·         Comparison with competing books.
·   It challenges the Keynesian assumption that interventions are necessary to prevent recessions. Certainly, borrowing to stimulate is not needed. There is another way.
·         It agrees with much of the Austrian School and a lot of recent literature that say the way that money is created leads to enlarged business cycles and booms and busts and even depressions.  I cite Professor Steve Keen among others on the role of the credit cycle in depressions.
·         It firmly disagrees with the school of the ‘gold standard.’ As soon as you ‘point your gun’ at that target the target will move. The price of gold will change as soon as it is adopted as a value for money. And moreover, one price (of gold) can only assist a balance of one activity – it ought to be trade, not speculation and investment as well.
·         It tentatively agrees with Adam Smith’s ‘hidden hand’ – the way that prices can re-balance an economy. It denies that that theory has been put to the test and failed as one economist I spoke to claimed. That is not the case. The economic architecture that we are using distorts prices so they are unable to re-balance an economy. In fact they spend all their time trying to balance things at the wrong prices. Result – chaos as we now see it happening all around us.
·         I conclude that we should first make the obviously needed changes to the architecture so that prices might be able to perform their proper function. Then we can test to see if prices can re-balance or keep the balance of a whole economy. If that fails, then we should look at what more needs to be done.
MY PUBLISHED WORK
You can find out a lot about me and my past writings on the second and third pages of this website., below. It is not well written on every page because of a need to constantly update about 100 published pages spread over a dozen websites that are inter-linked. I have failed in that task. A lot needs to be re-written or deleted. Writing the book has taken precedence.
POST SCRIPT

Maybe most / some of the above would make a better introduction to my book(s). If you want to try writing an introduction / overview based upon this, please do


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