THE BOOK

This is another failed attempt to write the book

Please forgive any inconvenience caused.

The way forward has proved to be the creation of a course in the subject.

The scripts for that are far superior

Please go to this link for that.

http://ingramwebinar01.blogspot.co.za/

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is the draft for the cover and the first pages of the book as at 2nd Jan 2015. 
This has been superceded by THE BOOK draft 171 on the next page of this website.

Unless YOU think this earlier version is better it will be deleted shortly. Comments please at LinkedIn Macro-economic Design Group. Or below where comments go.


BACK COVER
There is more than enough evidence that over 90% of all financial and economic instability has a single, identifiable cause. The idea that people’s finances, business, and savings plans, as well as whole economies, are naturally unstable may not be true.

It has been found that Adam Smith’s law of pricing, the foundation stone of economics, the law that keeps economies in balance, is not being followed. The architecture of our economies automatically distorts prices, costs, and values. Maybe most of our Finance and Macro-economic textbooks should be re-written.

Dr Rabi N. Mishra, Economist, and Chief General Manager, Reserve Bank of India writes: “This book will inspire rethinking on the perimeters of economic thought and theory, and their practical use in policy making. A ‘should-read’ for budding researchers in Financial Economics to expand its horizon.” 

Professor Evelyn Chiloane-Tsoka from the University of South Africa, says that “These ideas will become prescribed reading at universities”.

Alan Gray, Editor-in-Chief, NewsBlaze, writes, “The Macro-economic Design group’s elegant solution is so simple that it has eluded the big economic thinkers of our time, because everyone was looking for a complex solution to a complex problem.”

Mr Gray again:  “If most of the recommendations in this book are accepted and put into practice, it will move economics itself onto a more scientific footing.”

Many other professors, bankers, economists, and actuaries around the rest of the world have assisted and constantly urged Mr Ingram to publish this series of books as soon as possible.

The first economist to read the draft main book herein described it in one word, “Superb”. The second one wrote “It reads like a Novel”.

The first publisher to read it said that “The reader is compelled to keep turning the pages.”

=====================================END PAGE











Front cover by Carey Waters
ISBN 978-0-7974-9556-2
First published xxx Early 2015 by yyy






============================================END PAGE



Volume I introduces a whole new approach. Instead of managing instability the intention is to eliminate most of it. This series of books is promoted by financial experts in the Macro-Economic Design Group. [1]


Volume II is an exciting, personal story as never-seen-before discoveries were made, followed by some fascinating and easy-to-read, revolutionary mathematics of lending. A real simplification and an eye-opener.

These links will not appear in the book




[1] Founded by the author. Website: http://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com
Research Group Directors and Associates are listed in the Acknowledgements herein.

===========================================END PAGE





Dedication


To all our futures






=============================================END PAGE

CONTENTS

=============================================END PAGES


SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Adam Smith is sometimes referred to as the ‘Founder of Economics’. He is particularly well known for his pricing law. This says that prices play a role. The role of prices is to trend supply and demand into a balance, or in stable conditions, to create that balance. 

Yet the STANDARD MODEL for the economy (Pages 3-6) as taught to first year students and in single year courses denies this. Students are taught that economies are fundamentally unstable and that if there is no intervention a recovery from a recession or a downturn may take too long to be acceptable.

This is the basis of all modern economics. It is fundamentally wrong.

That model is only of use if we keep the current economic architecture. But what if we change that? What if we force the banking industry to offer us safer contracts and in that process we stabilise the housing and related sectors? What if we ask governments to stop using fixed interest bonds that encourage them to inflate their debts away at our expense? By doing that it will cut their borrowing costs and a the same time it will enable our pension funds to offer safe inflation proofed pensions. What if we insist on an end to currency wars by removing the means to wage them and at the same time create predictable prices for our imports and exports? What if we insist on having a stable stock of money (the author's words for a stable money supply but with a specific definition) so that interest rates do not and cannot go way out of balance, creating excessive borrowing and destroying savings and opening the door to easy money that makes some people into billionaires and ruins the savings of the nation?

In short, what if we change the whole economic architecture so that all prices, costs and values respond as they should to changes in the level of aggregate demand – or as near as we can get to that?

Then that standard model will go right out of date and along with that most of the problems that we have will go away. That is the proposition made in this book.


THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

The financial and economic architecture is the way we arrange our financial contracts, our taxes, the cost of repayments, the way we create new money, and the way that we price interest rates and currencies.

These are distorting their related prices, costs, and values. The result is that we get automated price and cost instability and asset prices in property, bonds, equities and everything else. We should expect almost everything to be out of balance at almost all times. And in fact, that is the case. 

What we are getting is over-responses in the case of the housing and other borrowing sectors, the currency, and money creation process.  Everything related to those prices, costs, and values is constantly being thrown into chaotic imbalance. 

There is no part of our economies that is properly priced and valued. It does not take a genius to see that. It just takes a short time to read this book and understand the mechanisms that are playing around with our lives in every financial way.

OTHER VIEWPOINTS Some economists blame the pace of financial innovation for the chaos, saying that regulators are unable to keep pace. There is some truth in that. 

But most of those innovations are there to try to cope with this chaotic state. Everything is complicated - too complicated for our own good. Much of modern day finance is far beyond the understanding of the majority of people. In fact it is beyond the capability of the best economists to understand everything. Such complexity creates its own risk. Getting ever-increasing amounts of data and inventing new ways to intervene in the economies of nations will not take away the fundamental problems, but that is what they are trying to do.

CONCLUSION
If an explanation for all of these troubles is needed, it appears that we need not look further. We just need to stop destroying the ability of prices, costs, and values and the stock of money / credit from responding to changes in the level of aggregate demand in our economies.

KISS
As one reader commented, it is a case of 'Keep it Simple, Stupid' (KISS).

So let us do that. Let us make things so simple that even our average politicians and our non-financial folk can make a sensible and simple business or savings or retirement plan, knowing that it can work. 

After that is done why would we need to worry about recessions, inflation, slowdowns and bursts of higher economic activity? Everything will adjust without an intervention. 

If an intervention does prove to be needed, the essential thing is not to intervene in any way that changes the pattern of spending in the economy. Let people spend on what they want to spend. Let the jobs which are created that way continue to exist. When the people want something different let new jobs be created and old ones go.

Is that too radical - too uncaring? Too anti-socialist? There is always a place for the state. The state will always lay down the laws, impose taxes, and share the benefits of the productive sectors. It is a question of how much they can cream off and who should benefit. That is politics.


=========================================END PAGE

PREFACE
By Ben Carter

Edward Ingram is an ex student of systems control engineering who converted to being a financial adviser, and a superbly successful investment manager. After four decades of observing and coping with the faults in the economic system….

…by devising mathematical formulae to aid and support new economic principles for real time economic growth, he shows that the whole savings and lending sector is off course. And he shows how it can be shifted to being safe and reliable for all participants.

His analytical ability has also enabled him to find alternative solutions for international trade issues such as exchange rates which affect the pricing of one third of global output. And a safe new way for money creation that sets interest rates (the price of money) free to create the necessary balance.

His skill at finding distortions in the financial and economic architecture and solving the same through alternative innovation is unprecedented. No one has previously made a comparable contribution.

He is an economic crises doctor with medicine to stabilize or cure real-time ailments that normally put people in jeopardy with their savings, borrowing, and all kinds of business plans.

Edward Ingram’s new approach overtakes conventional thinking which simply tries to control an unmanageable economic and business environment.

He introduces the concept of minimum disturbance as these new financial services and methods are introduced so that there is always an immediate and positive benefit.

Taken together these remedies challenge the belief that people’s personal and business plans and whole economies are by nature unstable.

Everyone should be able to enjoy a significantly more secure financial life for themselves, their families, and their businesses.

The widespread financial disasters that overtake so many, in the process passing their wealth to the bankers and others through no fault of their own, will end. 


Ben Carter is an American activist who wants to have these ideas adopted in order to solve problems that otherwise seem insoluble.

=======================================END PAGE

A BOOK FOR EVERYONE

In order to reach the widest possible audience most of this book is written in plain English. When specialist words are used they are explained.

There are some instances where the words used may confuse economists who attach very particular meanings to some words, so a short discussion of that is provided in the pages entitled ‘AN APOLOGY TO ECONOMISTS’

In an attempt to reach everyone, this book has some chapters as well as subscripts which are mainly for financial sector readers. 

BREAKFAST IN THE MOUNTAINS
The main part for the general public and politicians starts in Chapter 3. It is entitled ‘Breakfast in the Mountains’ because it is basically what the writer told a dozen non-financial people at an Easter retreat in the mountains over breakfast. They loved it. It is a simple outline of the whole concept and how it will affect everyone's housing finance, pensions, and business plans.

But everyone is invited to read through the whole book.

AN INTERESTING QUESTION
One reader of the drafts asked whether there had in fact been any such ‘Breakfast in the Mountains’ or was this just a useful fiction?

Fact: it happened.[2] And the listeners were fascinated. They asked when the book will be published.



-------------------------------------
[2] Easter 2014 at Glenliver Hotel, lake Mutirikwi Recreational Park, Zimbabwe. 






=======================================END PAGE

SCOPE OF THE MAIN BOOK

There are three parts to the main book, starting at Chapter 3, as outlined below.

Each part explains how a pricing disability affects readers and others in business and government in a very distressing financial way. It explains exactly how these mistakes confuse people, government policies, and everyone’s hopes for the future. 

Each part explains and describes alternative ways to do these things using new financial and economic architecture. It is thought that these new lending and savings and other arrangements are very marketable because financial safety sells well. These changes and new financial services are practical, and importantly, they are designed to be implemented without undue disturbances to the economy as a whole. They have been designed by the writer, a retired financial adviser with skills in the design of safer financial products and services.


THE THREE PARTS

 #1 Debt, for example, is repaid with capital and interest which makes it unstable and unable to take account of the changing value of money when the level of monthly repayments is calculated. The response to changing levels of interest that are induced by changing rates of money devaluation, or revaluation, is ten times too sensitive – a tenfold over-response that throws all borrowing and lending costs and sectors like housing and business finance into needless instability. Costs, and property values are distorted by this. Interest rates get manipulated by the central banks in order to ease the problem. Savers lose out whilst the less fortunate lose their homes.

Costs and interest rates are both prices, as are property values. All get distorted. This, and taxation, also takes the savings and retirement industries into the mists of complexity and uncertainty. Fixed interest bonds create massive problems because they are, by definition, unable to adjust correctly either in servicing cost, or in value, to the ever-changing value of money and the market forces that this creates. They simply ignore all that, destroying much of our hopes in the process.

In the developed economies that currently have low rates of interest all this creates LOW INFLATION TRAP from which it is very difficult to escape unless changes are made to these debt structures - changes that take out the risk and the over-sensitivity that creates that trap.

In Europe where deflation has taken hold fixed interest debt becomes exceptionally dangerous. Repayment and interest costs are fixed yet incomes and revenues are falling. Risk of default rises. Interest rates are raised to compensate, creating more risk creating higher interest rates creating greater risk...

The same kind of thing happens when a government decides to reduce inflation, fixed interest bonds make the exercise unacceptably expensive and inflation looks quite attractive. Then savings are put at risk. Whether you are borrowing, lending, or saving you have no real protection.

Fixed interest is said to be the safest form of investment but in fact it is among the most dangerous.

ESCAPE TO NORMALLITY
If the new savings and debt architecture is installed escape from some of these currently intractable problems can be achieved with relative ease. That is why some people who are familiar with these ideas are very keen to see those solutions implemented before the social strains being experienced lead to catastrophic political outcomes beyond those already being experienced. 

Wherever you get financial and economic instability you risk getting high levels of unemployment and extreme political outcomes.
#2. Total debt is out of control due to a mistake in the way that money-to-lend (credit) is created. Over 97% of money is created when a new loan is taken out. It is destroyed when that loan is repaid. The idea that the price of money (the interest rate) should be managed (to control the level of demand from borrowed money) is contrary to what Adam Smith’s pricing law demands. A price that is not free cannot create a balance.

And it is wrong to create demand in this way. It is unbalanced. It favours those that lend and borrow at the expense of others and other economic sectors.

Because of this loose way of managing money creation, money creation and the level of borrowing are not fully under control. This has rightly been blamed for the major depressions (the result of excessive borrowing), as well as the major part of boom and bust cycles. After a period of massively excess borrowing like we have had in the period leading up to the crisis of 2008 and onwards, it takes years to pay down the debts of the private sector including the population in general. No stimulus to restore their level of spending can work until that has been dealth with.

What have our policy-makers done? They have sustained those low interest rates. Thsy have made the abnormal into the new normal. It cannot last.

   #3. Currency prices are not permitted to balance trade. This is because the currency price is also asked to balance cross-currency investment flows. The dual task is not possible. One price for one task is the only practical way to do these things.

One third of the world’s business is valued this way because it is exported. All exports are imported elsewhere. For this third of global economic activity, long term business planning with confidence is not possible. Many otherwise viable business projects are set up at enormous cost, and then forcibly abandoned by changes in the pricing of currencies.

Because of this dual role for the price of currencies, pricing cross-currency investments as well as the balance of trade, it is possible for massive currency reserves to be used to wage currency wars. Speculators also join in.

As Paul Volker, one time Governor of the USA’s Federal Reserve Bank allegedly indicated in informal speeches, “Trade flows are affected more by ten minutes of movement in the currency markets than by ten years of (even successful) [trade] negotiations in Geneva.”



=======================================END PAGE



INCENSED

The general public, like the writer and his team of researchers, will be incensed that their financial, business, and family lives are exposed to such a wall of unpredictable risk when that is not necessary.

The risks are so great that at times, people by the tens of thousands or even millions, experience devastation at the hands of our unstable finances and economics. They will be incensed when they understand that, according to the science-based findings in this book, and this series of books, that this does not need to be the case.

Yes. It will mean career changes and new learning for many in the financial services sector, and a new syllabus at universities. That is why, as Andrew Pampallis, ex head of banking at the University of Johannesburg wrote to Edward Ingram, “When they realise what you have done, all hell will break loose.”





=======================================END PAGE
NOTE TO WEB READERS
For more information that almost covers the whole subject please read other pages on this website and on the main one    http://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com    For those interested in knowing when the book is published, or buying the book, there are contact details on the main  website home page.

WHEN A PAGE IS UPDATED OR CHANGED OR ADDED THAT IS NOTIFIED ON THE LATEST UPDATES PAGE

Please draw these web pages to the attention of your Member of Paliament / Senator / Law Makers
.
=======================================END PAGE


INTRODUCTION
What economists say

COMPLEXITY
The economists are right – the economy is very complex.

Where they are wrong is in not understanding that the majority of that complexity is created. It can be taken out. The Standard Model of the economy that they were taught is the reason for the complexity. If we change that, then they don't need to spend billions trying to forecast and manage the major imbalances and crises in an economy. In future, there won’t be any imbalances and crises on the scale that we are used to. At least not from the usual causes.

THE ARCHITECTURE

As already explained, the instability is created by the rules and regulations, taxes, and so forth including the services offered by the financial services industry. This includes the regulators and the taxation authorities, and the role of the banks and the central banks. As far as pricing is concerned, in many of these activities, 'we' are not ‘going by the book.’ That is easily proved.

CHALLENGES

1.     Economists say that the way that people behave is a complication of the greatest magnitude. “How do you deal with that?”

Reply:
The resulting chaos is such as to make people behave in all kinds of ways, some predictable and some not. That makes everything even more complex. It is not surprising that economics is a very difficult and complex subject. But does it have to be like that? How much of people-behaviour is a consequence, and not a cause, of all the uncertainty and risk?

2.     Many of our top economists think they know for certain that there are no simple solutions worth looking at. So they do not look. They do not read scripts like those in this book. Besides, they are not keen to learn how book-keeping is done, or the details of every-day finances, for example."

They are definitely wrong.


CONSIDER THIS
Engineers, doctors, and social scientists all know that in a complex system if just one thing is not done ‘by the book’ the entire system can be derailed and symptoms of sickness or instability will appear all over the place.

In any complex system, finding out where we are not going ‘by the book’ and working out how we can correct those mistakes, takes out an avalanche of symptoms that previously had that single origin. Until that has been done, one problem creates another, which creates several more, and we get an avalanche of problems.

When the source of the first problem is taken away, all of those subsidiary problems just vanish. The complexity of the entire system reduces by an order of magnitude.

NOT ONE BUT MANY
What we have is not one pricing mistake in our economic architecture, but many. Each one creates an imbalance and each imbalance adds significantly to the instability and complexity of the economy. 

Each of these makes planning difficult and risky, and confuses the people, including the economists and the policy-makers that are trying to help. The only way to find out if this is the main problem is to remove these man-made and automated distortions.


THE ALTERNATIVE
The alternative is to keep these distortions - knowing how and why each one of them destroys the lives and businesses of millions of people.

It has been suggested by Graham Hollick, a member of the Macro-economic Design support group, that this series of books might be called ‘Simplifying the Economic Model’ in the sense that the whole complex economic structure is a ‘model’ (or a design) that needs to be simplified by removing these complexities. Hence:

========================================END PAGE

OCCAM’S RAZOR
And economics
Wikipedia says, “Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a problem-solving principle devised by William of Ockham (c. 1287–1347), who was an English Franciscan friar and scholastic philosopher and theologian. The principle states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.”

Again from Wikipedia “…Simpler theories are preferable to more complex ones because they are better testable and falsifiable.”

Indeed.



=======================================END PAGE



CONCLUSIONS REACHED IN THIS BOOK

Central banks and other policy-makers do not have the means with which to address the imbalances that the world has today. If they want to have the tools with which to address these imbalances, they should first remove the automated imbalances that created the problem. They should read this book.

Almost every price related to aggregate demand, to imports and exports, to interest rates, and those prices, costs, and values related to housing, and prices and costs related to business, and government finance, is distorted. In short they are the all the wrong prices at almost all times.

What do prices do? They create a balance.

What do wrong prices do? They create an imbalance.

The world’s economies are all off balance as we all know. Why?

Because we make it so.


It is up to us to elect politicians that put in place policy-makers that can and will change that. It is down to us.


=======================================END PAGE

A SOCIAL REVOLUTION…

This series of books looks into the details and offers solutions that will make people at every level feel significantly more financially secure than has been possible for centuries. That is provided that the recommended changes are implemented.

But people who want to take risks can always do so. They will be able to take the risks that they want to take. In future, taking the risks that they do not want to take may not be the problem.

In the meantime, everyone everywhere is confused and liable to lose their life savings, their pensions, their businesses, and their homes. Something needs to be done to change this.

…OR TWO?
The next great challenge may be that engineers and scientists are rapidly automating people out of jobs. This is nothing new. In days gone by we were all farmers or hunters. But today the advances are getting so great that this might explain why lower skilled incomes are not rising and jobs are getting scarce. 

Robots are getting better and more able. Maybe, one day, robots will do everything for us except those things which only one person can do for another. What a pleasure – but how will society adapt?

Could this explain why those at the top will get more and more wealthy and have more and more control as other jobs get eliminated?

That process could be very green – with solar energy provided by robots that manufacture and maintain themselves and create renewable energy at next to zero cost - but the change-over process, however slow, may be politically traumatic.


How will anything be priced then? We should prepare for a new world. How?

Maybe I will write another book about that.


=======================================END PAGE


CHAPTER 1
Some preliminaries

CHALLENGES FROM ECONOMISTS AND SKEPTICS
Before getting to the main book, sub-titled ‘Breakfast in the Mountains’ which addresses the general public and political decision makers in particular, a cause for concern is the number of objections that some high level economists raise. 

They use this as a way to avoid reading and learning from reading any material information that is contained in this book; and in the earlier publications offered to them by email or in discussion groups on the internet, of which there have been hundreds.

The reason is clear - what they have been taught about how the economy behaves is based upon the current model which is completely wrong. It ignores the first and most basic rule of economics - prices are supposed to create a balance. If we distort them we get an imbalance.

So this is a short chapter for them.
---------------------------

A lot of objections are prompted by decades of knowing that economics and people-behaviour has baffled the best brains that the world has thrown at the problem. How could it be different this time?

For example:
One professor at a world famous American University reportedly said that the ideas could not work because there are no losers. There are losers of course – those who take advantage of everyone else and get an unearned share of their wealth. They will be losers. Those opportunities will reduce significantly. Everyone else will win.

What the professor meant was that the economy is unstable and he thinks that interventions are necessary. That is what he was taught. That is what he is paid to teach. That is the Standard Model of the economy which is taught to everyone.

He has not been trained to look at the source of these instabilities – at least not in the way that we do in this book. Like any real breakthrough, when it is explained properly it is so obvious that people wonder why they never saw it before. 

WHAT DID PROFESSOR MEAN?
When an intervention is made there are winners and losers. He was right about that. But if he had read this book he would have discovered that almost all interventions are just an unnecessary source of confusion for anyone trying to make a plan and they add a further complexity that we do not want. They create yet another set of winners and losers...who will the new losers be?

Second objection:
Powerful people at the top, and financial innovators will always find ways to defeat all attempts to make the financial world orderly. That way they can take advantage. There may be some truth in that. But it does not mean that we cannot try to do better.

It is hoped that this book will make the causes of our problems so obvious to everyone that something will be done about it. If ways to get around it are devised we can alsways write another book.

What is certain is that the syllabus which is taught and at our universities is not providing the answers.

Hence Professor Chiloane-Tsoka’s comment on the back cover, that these ideas will become prescribed (required) reading at Universities.

Third objection:
“I am not going to read your scripts because they cannot be right.”

This is by far the most common objection. An example has already been given above in which a professor said it cannot be worth reading because there are no losers.

In answer to this, written below is something that they are definitely missing out on. It is taken from the writer’s column at www.fin24.com whose editors are wholly supportive. That is why the author, Edward C D Ingram, has been given his own column there in South Africa’s leading online financial magazine.

The next page is taken from that column here


 =======================================END PAGE
The book continues to be drafted in full and should be published shortly


For more information that almost covers the whole subject please read other pages on this website and on the main one    http://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com    For those interested in knowing when the book is published, or buying the book, there are contact details on the main  website home page.


WHEN A PAGE IS UPDATED / CHANGED OR ADDED THAT IS NOTIFIED ON THE

=======================================END PAGE

No comments:

Post a Comment